Resource Assessment
Overview
Historic Review
Historically, the
Department of the Interior (DOI) has completed eight comprehensive OCS
resource assessments since 1976 among which six assessments were completed
by MMS since its inception in 1982 (see
Table of Historic Results
(607.75 KB PDF).
These “National” assessments are the results of a multiyear effort by MMS’s
geoscientists, engineers , economists and mathematicians working together in
order to assess the undiscovered crude oil and natural gas resources of the
Nation’s OCS areas. Two of the early (pre-1982) assessments were done
concurrently with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to estimate the
undiscovered oil and natural gas resources of the US onshore areas as well
as the adjacent waters within the boundaries of the coastal States.
And although multiple
assessments exist, there is not a sound basis for comparing those
assessments due to changes in methodology over time and fundamental changes
in the underlying data. Since 1982, when MMS was created, the geological and
geophysical (G&G) information available to government assessors has
increased dramatically. G&G data have allowed MMS to expand considerably its
knowledge regarding the resource potential of the OCS. The biggest volumes
of these data have been confined predominantly to the Central and Western
Gulf of Mexico as well as to Southern California.
Early DOI resource
assessments focused on reporting estimates of undiscovered economically
recoverable resources (UERR). But the oil and natural gas prices have
experienced considerable volatility since the initial assessment was
completed. As a result, assessments reporting UERR typically utilized
different prices and sets of economic conditions. The frequency of
developing new resource estimates could not keep pace with changes in oil
and gas prices. Beginning with the 1996 assessment, the MMS RE Program
focused primarily on reporting estimates of undiscovered technically
recoverable resources (UTRR). In an attempt to present a more complete
picture of the total hydrocarbon endowment, assessment reports also included
estimates of cumulative production, reserves, and reserves appreciation.
Undiscovered technically
recoverable resources refer to quantities of hydrocarbon resources expected
to be present in undiscovered pools within a play, using technology and
exploration and development efficiency available or reasonably foreseeable
at the time of the assessment. No explicit consideration for economic
viability was implied in the estimation of the undiscovered technically
recoverable resources. The estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable
resources are presented as a range of values corresponding to different
probabilities of occurrence.
Undiscovered
economically recoverable resources are the portion of undiscovered
technically recoverable resources that can be explored, developed, and
commercially produced at given cost and price considerations using present
or reasonably foreseeable technology. The estimates of economically
recoverable resources are presented as a range of resource values
corresponding to different resource prices.
The period covered by
the assessments is one in which the oil and gas industry’s technology
capabilities expanded immensely. Today the oil and gas industry possesses
the ability to drill exploratory wells in water depths exceeding 10,000 feet
and to exploit discoveries in over 7,500 feet. The use of three-dimensional
(3-D) and other advanced seismic data and interpretation techniques has
served as a catalyst to transform the geosciences and the petroleum
industry. Resource assessment techniques also became more sophisticated
during the same period. Therefore over the time frame of these assessments,
the magnitude of resources believed to be technically recoverable continued
to grow dramatically with each assessment.
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